The wait is finally over, it’s election day!

History is already being made… Obama has won the win the Dixville Notch vote. The last time a Democrat did that was 1968… so he’s off to a good start.

But with the rest of the votes still having to be cast, I thought it would be cool to take a look at the final poll and the map going into today, and give a small prediction to what I see (and what many other pundits) see happening today. First let’s take a look at the November 4th Gallop Poll for election day:

For those who thought this race was ‘tightening’, this is not the kind of number you want to see. It looks like some of those independents are breaking for Obama as well, which is not good cause McCain needed them all to close the gap. An eleven point lead walking into election day is staggering, and it will be ingeresting to see how close this is to the final result or if the other canidates such as Nader, Barr or others will dent into it as well. With that said, let’s take a look at todays electoral map:

This also doesn’t bode too well if you’re rooting for McCain. Obama looks to be leaning or leading in some major battleground states and if this holds it’s looking like a major landslide victory for Barack Obama. But I’m not a picky guy, as long as Barack can pass 270, everything above that is gravy. But here are the states that I think are crutial for victory for both sides:

Deal Breakers

Pennsylvania:

This state is the mother of all deal breakers for McCain, because winning all the toss up states is going to be enough to reach 270. He needs this State which is why both he and Palin have made Pennsylvania their second home for the last month and half. They’re trying to make this place their go to upset state, but based on the numbers we’re seeing it doesn’t look like it’s working. Based on the boos Palin has been getting at more than one event, I still think this state is going to go blue for the fifth election in a row.

Florida:

This is another state that McCain can’t win without, and another state that Obama can use use to end the election. Just like the previous state above, if Florida finally goes blue tonight, it’s all over for the Republicans and John McCain. Obama knows this and that’s why he’s been aggressively outspending McCain 5-1 for the past month. Both of these states will like be called very early, and if either of them go to Obama… I can see the networks calling this election early. That’s how badly McCain needs them.

The Controversial State

Virginia:

This battleground state is going to have a massive turnout, and it looks like their polling stations and machines might not be ready to handle what will be the outrageiously hight numbers. What I’m hoping for is that the above states will be called early and swing the election so quickly so that this state will not have the pressure of the whole nation placed on its shoulders. Groups have already appealed to the Governor to authorize stations to have emergancy paper ballots on hand incase the machines break down or the lines are obscenely long. I really hope his allows this, because the turnout could cause some major problems.

The Upset Picks

Georgia:

This state is going to victim to the Ralph Nader factor, but the canidate who is going to suffer from it this time out is John McCain. I predict that a good handful disgruntal GOP voters are going to cast their ballot for Bob Barr, and that might be enough to casue McCain to lose enough points in this vey close race to lose this state and it’s fifteen electoral votes. It’s only a three point difference, which is already within the margin of error, so if Barr takes even just two or three percent of the vote, that’s enough to cost McCain the state.

And that’s not the only state that has a potential spolier on the ballot…

Montana:

Yes, I’m predicting that Montana is going blue tonight and I have two words to explain why: Ron Paul. What many people don’t know is that OMGRONPAUL!!!! is on the ballot in Montana. There are reports that there are far more Paul signs in Montana there there are McCain signs, and this is going to cause a major spoiler issue for the GOP in this state. Paul has never been factored into any of the polls, and it’s been predicted that he’s going to take as much as 6-10% of of the vote and most of those votes will likely come from McCain’s side. Combine that with the fact that Obama has been spending month there, has field offices and a ground game there (where McCain has done neither) and all this spells victory for Obama in Montana.

The West Wing Swing State

Nevada:

A lot of fellow diary members have been comparing this year’s election to the one that took place in season seven of the West Wing between Matt Santos and Arnold Vinick. It’s a valid comparison because the similarities have been staggering. So with that in mind, we should take a look at the state that was the one state that decided the election at the end of their election night. This was the West Wing’s Florida, and right now it looks like it will also go Blue… just like it did on the show.

Predictions:

So here we go, this is my official prediction to what I think is going to happen tonight. Many other pundits have made their predictions on what they think will happen tonight, so now I will make mine. Here are the numbers I think we are going to see when it’s all said and done based on the explainations I have made above:

Winner: Barack Obama

Electoral College: Obama 377, McCain 171

Senate Seats: 59 Democrats, 39 Republicans, 2 Independent

House Seats: 261 Democrats, 174 Republicans

So that’s my prediction. What do you think will happen tonight??

Peter